Monday Market Watch (22-26 Sept)

Albert Johnson
Sep 22
2 min read

Here's some of the weekly things happening in the South African markets as well as some of the latest news.

The JSE has kept its resilience, with its continued climb, to 106 085 as of this morning, whilst the Rand has continued its strengthening against the dollar, reaching R17.28/US$

1. South African GDP growth of 0.8%

South African economy grew by about 0.8% in the second quarter of 2025, up from just 0.1% in Q1. The growth was driven by manufacturing, mining, and trade. Construction has however contracted. This is better than many had expected, though still sluggish in the big picture.

Unemployment in South Africa remains high.

2. Inflation and Interest rates steady

Inflation eased: headline consumer inflation fell to 3.3% in August, down from 3.5% in July.

SARB kept the repo rate steady (at 7%)_ in the last meeting. Its taking a cautious approach to see if inflation remains well-contained before making further moves.

3. Job, Investment and weak fixed capital formation

Despite the modest growth, investment (especially fixed business investment) is weak. Gross fixed capital formation declined in Q2.

There are warnings about job losses in certain sectors, especially given weak investment and tough global/ trade conditions.

4. Government reforms, infrastructure, and logistics bottlenecks

The government is under pressure to speed up reforms in key state-institutions (like Eskom, and Transnet) and in logistics and ports, to relieve bottlenecks.

Long-term lease agreements have been granted to major oil/logistic companies at the Duran fuel hub (Island View Precinct), which helps to reduce uncertainty in fuel supply infrastructure.

5. Job Cuts and corporate stress in some industries

Coca-Cola Beverages South Africa intends to cut over 600 jobs.

Arcelor Mittal is considering broad retrenchments and other firms reportedly reducing workforce (or threatening to) as they adjust to weaker demand, inflation and trade headwinds.

Implications / what to watch

The growth, while better, is not yet strong enough to reduce unemployment significantly; structural problems persist.
Maintaining inflation around or below the lower end of the target range gives the SARB room (in theory) to ease interest rates if conditions stay favorable—but risks remain (global shocks, currency, food/fuel prices).
The state of investment is a concern, especially private sector investment; unless that improves, the growth will stay fragile.
Reforms in infrastructure and logistics may unlock more growth if delivered; delays or mismanagement could worsen bottlenecks.
Trade relationships (e.g. export demand, import costs) and global economic conditions will continue to play a big role.